Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8472

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.485). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8471, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8472
    24 Oct 2026, 08:42 UTC

    GABARAPL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGABARAPL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered10fb2a7934f2cced

    discovery+0.27 p=0.485 n=9

    replication+0.80 p=0.0093 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.485)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1ba7a009e1fd8676982367d4…
    follows a33fbd1127c7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8472: GABARAPL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.64 (p 0.0044, n 18), 95% CI +0.24 to +0.85. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.67 (p 0.0024, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.73 (p 6.2e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.60 to +0.75, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.64 (p 0.0044, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GABARAPL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.