Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8448

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8447, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8448
    24 Oct 2026, 08:09 UTC

    TIMM8B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTIMM8B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede97b9a10a73454f1

    discovery+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b773a8ba043e3c9a9f98bbd9…
    follows 612eff43c91d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8448: TIMM8B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TIMM8B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.