Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8415

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.090). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8414, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8415
    24 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC

    FOSL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFOSL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc1ec828149e7346e

    discovery-0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    replication-0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.090)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3906f68de5c114d5ac50629b…
    follows a09afdebeb20…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8415: FOSL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FOSL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.