Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0826

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.362). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 825, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0826
    17 Oct 2026, 07:33 UTC

    PPP2R1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPP2R1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede0755e79d39aeb02

    discovery+0.35 p=0.362 n=9

    replication+0.40 p=0.285 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.362)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d3e78a0dc60b0efda8cefd34…
    follows ba4093a53428…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0826: PPP2R1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.332, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.63 (p 0.0055, n 18) vs +0.24 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPP2R1A in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up PPP2R1A · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.45 p 0.110 (needs p < 0.0015)