Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8258

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.204). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8257, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8258
    24 Oct 2026, 03:56 UTC

    USP13

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionUSP13 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd9a95988a6be1a47

    discovery+0.47 p=0.204 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.233 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.204)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    30966c244731b2b89424b7e1…
    follows 3ba763772ea2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8258: USP13 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for USP13 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.