Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8135

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.738). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8134, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8135
    24 Oct 2026, 01:58 UTC

    CLN5

    microglia, braak

    predictionCLN5 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered52547ed79130f40b

    discovery+0.13 p=0.738 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.618 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.738)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c5d825e46c8d909515658a7d…
    follows aafe4acd76ea…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8135: CLN5 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.13 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CLN5 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.