Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8040

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.672). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8039, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8040
    23 Oct 2026, 23:48 UTC

    RAD51B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRAD51B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd79d017bda80c69d

    discovery-0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.672)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    794eeaff354ffd648ee79eed…
    follows fc757d73c7da…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8040: RAD51B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.05, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAD51B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.