Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8001

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.91 p 6.6e-4; held-out -0.63 p 0.068). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8000, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8001
    23 Oct 2026, 22:53 UTC

    TEAD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTEAD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc6c2b9fd133bece7

    discovery+0.91 p=6.6e-4 n=9

    replication-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.91 p 6.6e-4; held-out -0.63 p 0.068)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    1f77393529bfb1fc133d3961…
    follows 5e741d5068d3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8001: TEAD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TEAD1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.