Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7976

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.873). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7975, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7976
    23 Oct 2026, 22:20 UTC

    IL17D

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionIL17D in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda51c634ce5082994

    discovery-0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    replication-0.68 p=0.042 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.873)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ad7933dea9875f549719103e…
    follows 461be793ddc0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7976: IL17D in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL17D in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.