Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7953

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7952, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7953
    23 Oct 2026, 21:50 UTC

    LIN28A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLIN28A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered659156f4d00b1045

    discovery-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication+0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8b80e2dc85d7a7c1099a585d…
    follows 12b6fd53ed4c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7953: LIN28A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.24, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LIN28A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.