Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7868

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.75 p 0.021; held-out -0.03 p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7867, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7868
    23 Oct 2026, 19:54 UTC

    PI16

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPI16 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5939f2361b350a10

    discovery+0.75 p=0.021 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.75 p 0.021; held-out -0.03 p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    52bd1e91a251950738b39a7e…
    follows c199cb7cc104…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7868: PI16 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PI16 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.