Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0773

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.030; held-out +0.27 p 0.476). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 772, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0773
    17 Oct 2026, 06:22 UTC

    JAZF1

    microglia, braak

    predictionJAZF1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5b0bb1121030632f

    discovery-0.72 p=0.030 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.476 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.030; held-out +0.27 p 0.476)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    7d2adb01998d6ddab43e922a…
    follows 439ca6a6de8e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0773: JAZF1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.888, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.07, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for JAZF1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.