Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7696

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.285). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7695, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7696
    23 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC

    NADSYN1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNADSYN1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb34b647f46c7e8cb

    discovery-0.40 p=0.285 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.894 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.285)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5b88dee0d2a165cb3979e4b6…
    follows 31cc3d785837…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7696: NADSYN1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NADSYN1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.