Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7671

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.498). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7670, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7671
    23 Oct 2026, 15:27 UTC

    NUP214

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNUP214 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9a9cc047394b30e8

    discovery+0.26 p=0.498 n=9

    replication-0.50 p=0.168 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.498)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    34befc1d782c12ac8ee1ad2f…
    follows d69ad7ae4b2f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7671: NUP214 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NUP214 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.