Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7646

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.173). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7645, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7646
    23 Oct 2026, 14:54 UTC

    PRMT9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRMT9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered48d307ba0b8f66f3

    discovery-0.50 p=0.173 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.173)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3376d68a8c539d34b05a4f4c…
    follows 5662e4fd2ba6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7646: PRMT9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRMT9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.