Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7623

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.807). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7622, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7623
    23 Oct 2026, 14:24 UTC

    ADA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered54b4adf091bb78b8

    discovery+0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.906 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.807)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    597d68c6c4f3427b25aa833f…
    follows 00c216fb10ad…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7623: ADA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.05, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.63 (p 0.0055, n 18) vs -0.07 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADA in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ADA · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.07 p 0.790 (needs p < 2.8e-4)