Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7595

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.73 p 0.025; held-out -0.13 p 0.733). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7594, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7595
    23 Oct 2026, 13:48 UTC

    HSPA1L

    microglia, braak

    predictionHSPA1L in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered54a25d2e72f5d2b4

    discovery-0.73 p=0.025 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.733 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.73 p 0.025; held-out -0.13 p 0.733)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    2f62256576c822fb47aa949e…
    follows 930fadb84667…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7595: HSPA1L in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.53 (p 0.022, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.09. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). holds up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.61 to -0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.53 (p 0.022, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HSPA1L in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.