Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7575

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.336). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7574, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7575
    23 Oct 2026, 13:21 UTC

    CRLS1

    microglia, braak

    predictionCRLS1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9af570a8f47c9a3b

    discovery+0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    replication-0.64 p=0.063 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.336)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    58fb63c12885931cb34e882d…
    follows 88cbba080700…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7575: CRLS1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CRLS1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.