Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7564

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.028; held-out -0.12 p 0.768). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7563, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7564
    23 Oct 2026, 13:07 UTC

    LMX1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLMX1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered058e2178376c3fbd

    discovery-0.72 p=0.028 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.768 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.028; held-out -0.12 p 0.768)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    ca22ebfa2b777bd30b047046…
    follows 9c37646cdc70…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7564: LMX1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LMX1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.