Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7562

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7561, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7562
    23 Oct 2026, 13:04 UTC

    PCSK1N

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPCSK1N in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2a082a5199bba7d1

    discovery-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    757d31311498726310f004e5…
    follows d580f025aae1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7562: PCSK1N in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.12, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PCSK1N in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.