Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7545

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.234). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7544, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7545
    23 Oct 2026, 12:39 UTC

    PPP1R1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPP1R1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered472528d77f65f351

    discovery-0.44 p=0.234 n=9

    replication-0.79 p=0.011 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.234)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dc5b18dbe0420f92f2951dba…
    follows 14fe8520641b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7545: PPP1R1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.69 (p 0.0014, n 18), 95% CI -0.88 to -0.34. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.76 (p 2.2e-4, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.75 (p 3.7e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.74 to -0.66, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.69 (p 0.0014, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPP1R1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.