Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7541

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.247). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7540, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7541
    23 Oct 2026, 12:34 UTC

    ELAVL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionELAVL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered98a3ccad87706b68

    discovery+0.43 p=0.247 n=9

    replication+0.69 p=0.042 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.247)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    675a36b332af3eb91e59889a…
    follows 86e1d77ce2a5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7541: ELAVL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.54 (p 0.019, n 18), 95% CI +0.10 to +0.81. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.59 (p 0.0099, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.48 to +0.71, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.54 (p 0.019, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ELAVL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.