Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7535

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7534, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7535
    23 Oct 2026, 12:26 UTC

    JAK3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionJAK3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1ea445675b4cde47

    discovery-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication-0.68 p=0.045 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d5b66017f46c2b2e74caf609…
    follows 30d7e116ad76…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7535: JAK3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.043, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.55 (p 0.019, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.68 (p 0.0019, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for JAK3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.