Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7477

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.732). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7476, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7477
    23 Oct 2026, 11:03 UTC

    CD84

    microglia, braak

    predictionCD84 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered93a57f3b6912f4ca

    discovery-0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.324 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.732)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    04b17bda522f8b15e6ed61d4…
    follows f6e57a6d5349…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7477: CD84 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.15, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD84 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.