Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7403

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.785). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7402, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7403
    23 Oct 2026, 09:23 UTC

    G3BP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionG3BP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc17f2318820ec0db

    discovery+0.11 p=0.785 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.959 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.785)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    28896ce0765dc32ca8674579…
    follows 543a533e329f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7403: G3BP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18) vs -0.19 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for G3BP2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up G3BP2 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.02 p 0.929 (needs p < 2.8e-4)