Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7392

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.499). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7391, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7392
    23 Oct 2026, 09:10 UTC

    SLC39A12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC39A12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered871fd4d2584ca577

    discovery-0.26 p=0.499 n=9

    replication+0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.499)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    94f5fe4753370db63bdabd3b…
    follows ae9fb6e3aa6b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7392: SLC39A12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC39A12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.