Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7384

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.78 p 0.013; held-out -0.10 p 0.802). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7383, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7384
    23 Oct 2026, 09:01 UTC

    MARK2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMARK2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredef216af51286cb6b

    discovery-0.78 p=0.013 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.78 p 0.013; held-out -0.10 p 0.802)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    4641eb9dc5a9f92f851e4fa6…
    follows 0ecd380ea539…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7384: MARK2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MARK2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.