Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7358

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7357, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7358
    23 Oct 2026, 08:28 UTC

    ZNRF2

    microglia, braak

    predictionZNRF2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7e4f19981d470bf3

    discovery-0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.741 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    630f947960dc2397d6f26f80…
    follows f4dd9fdbb37d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7358: ZNRF2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNRF2 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.