Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0735

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.722). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 734, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0735
    17 Oct 2026, 05:29 UTC

    FAM47E

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionFAM47E in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd7346f585f821ed6

    discovery-0.14 p=0.722 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.722)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6497838d2b08d0ee4f38ec6b…
    follows 07da386296a1…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0735: FAM47E in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FAM47E in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.