Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7303

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.529). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7302, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7303
    23 Oct 2026, 07:14 UTC

    DPP10

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionDPP10 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8e6f4a7e9dd5693c

    discovery+0.24 p=0.529 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.529)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e88c1567f265a99728c87b3c…
    follows 6b3ea1681953…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7303: DPP10 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.20, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DPP10 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.