Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7296

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.907). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7295, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7296
    23 Oct 2026, 07:06 UTC

    MEF2C

    microglia, braak

    predictionMEF2C in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3b9b1acce08a1708

    discovery+0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.768 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.907)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c2d1e35bb763bb35da1fb2bd…
    follows b3adbe6ebeec…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7296: MEF2C in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.01, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MEF2C in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.