Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7276

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.732). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7275, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7276
    23 Oct 2026, 06:38 UTC

    AP2B1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAP2B1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0e4be4c807679bff

    discovery-0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.894 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.732)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c25c9fd12badfe4d04805089…
    follows 424a4165e59a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7276: AP2B1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AP2B1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.