Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7274

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.474). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7273, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7274
    23 Oct 2026, 06:36 UTC

    MCU

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMCU in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredff7fa8a192c7a1c1

    discovery-0.27 p=0.474 n=9

    replication+0.48 p=0.190 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.474)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    666a1f51e2a7c459f63cd9a9…
    follows 2a8688f5f225…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7274: MCU in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.460, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MCU in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.