Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0724

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.321). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 723, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0724
    17 Oct 2026, 05:13 UTC

    HINFP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHINFP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered32ad8cee7ca13058

    discovery-0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.202 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.321)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    86a82fe26df472a5cf23dd81…
    follows 2fdaf7fcc095…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0724: HINFP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.01. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HINFP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.