Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7230

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.195). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7229, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7230
    23 Oct 2026, 05:38 UTC

    ZNF112

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF112 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc1463e409e1b3ff5

    discovery-0.48 p=0.195 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.195)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    aa8e03a4350a91e1bf4d6a0b…
    follows 888c8ad2e952…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7230: ZNF112 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.05, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.63 (p 0.0049, n 18) vs -0.06 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF112 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ZNF112 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)