Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7194

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.149). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7193, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7194
    23 Oct 2026, 04:51 UTC

    SPHK2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSPHK2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc8c02bdd32482e9b

    discovery-0.52 p=0.149 n=9

    replication-0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.149)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a26e855b58c7c0c41da2f1d8…
    follows 23adb34c30eb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7194: SPHK2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.78 (p 1.4e-4, n 18) vs -0.41 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPHK2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SPHK2 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.13 p 0.657 (needs p < 2.9e-4)