Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7163

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7162, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7163
    23 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC

    TDP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTDP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf36e516615396b82

    discovery+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0038d3312f95b191222565a5…
    follows 2de2ba69d4ba…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7163: TDP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.01, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TDP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.