Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7151

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.907). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7150, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7151
    23 Oct 2026, 03:50 UTC

    RGS4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRGS4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered23f1d20c976d0ed1

    discovery+0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.445 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.907)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4c17ec6ef1de675060fba947…
    follows 57eb6bd105e2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7151: RGS4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RGS4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.