Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0707

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 706, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0707
    17 Oct 2026, 04:51 UTC

    PDGFRA

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPDGFRA in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0725870cb422a896

    discovery-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.665 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    11c443282d5bafac15cea1f2…
    follows c9d06ec0e61e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0707: PDGFRA in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDGFRA in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.