Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7025

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.186). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7024, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7025
    23 Oct 2026, 01:51 UTC

    HSPA4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHSPA4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede8a6902d2f315359

    discovery+0.48 p=0.186 n=9

    replication-0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.186)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2f899387f0e2735d448dfc3d…
    follows 67410dc68fb2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7025: HSPA4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.20 to +0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HSPA4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.