Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6960

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.096). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6959, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6960
    23 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTC

    TSC2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTSC2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb8ecd07ff90609ed

    discovery-0.59 p=0.096 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.096)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b1acb23b3c53f544029d1b7e…
    follows 12aa0f9de263…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6960: TSC2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.060, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.060, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TSC2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.