Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6926

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.508). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6925, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6926
    22 Oct 2026, 23:34 UTC

    CCNH

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCNH in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5313a8ec04978dd6

    discovery+0.25 p=0.508 n=9

    replication+0.63 p=0.067 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.508)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fb5f19f5e9a01897884f6109…
    follows c2115019f5cb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6926: CCNH in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18), 95% CI +0.01 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.50 (p 0.036, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: +0.66 (p 0.0031, n 18) vs +0.47 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCNH in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CCNH · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.55 p 0.051 (needs p < 3.0e-4)