Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6920

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.195). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6919, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6920
    22 Oct 2026, 23:25 UTC

    TGFB2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTGFB2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered31d404f7bd3e9894

    discovery+0.48 p=0.195 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.195)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fad1d7f012f8dad928adbda4…
    follows f88b5e6a2ecb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6920: TGFB2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.915, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.16, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TGFB2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.