Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6904

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6903, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6904
    22 Oct 2026, 23:09 UTC

    LIFR

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionLIFR in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered282c1b0ff6487f84

    discovery-0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.947 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    981f8d74f79d28f7026f75a1…
    follows 94116c16cdd8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6904: LIFR in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LIFR in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.