Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6902

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.243). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6901, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6902
    22 Oct 2026, 23:06 UTC

    KCNK13

    microglia, braak

    predictionKCNK13 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1aaa3a74bc7e2d46

    discovery-0.43 p=0.243 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.183 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.243)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3d34e7a4214e61011fbde9ac…
    follows 085ff9239841…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6902: KCNK13 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNK13 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.