Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6850

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.927). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6849, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6850
    22 Oct 2026, 21:55 UTC

    PTGES

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPTGES in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf06707df4486ff14

    discovery-0.04 p=0.927 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.722 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.927)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ba59690b37350c401b36c96e…
    follows d491ad7a3f36…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6850: PTGES in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PTGES in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.