Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6822

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.49, p 0.186). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6821, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6822
    22 Oct 2026, 21:16 UTC

    CYSLTR2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCYSLTR2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered34bd3afb307d7c4b

    discovery+0.49 p=0.186 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.49, p 0.186)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0b896a91dd17f32027344fdb…
    follows accf2b615010…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6822: CYSLTR2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.51 (p 0.031, n 18), 95% CI +0.05 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.63 (p 0.0053, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.66 (p 0.0029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.43 to +0.60, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CYSLTR2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.