Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6820

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.430). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6819, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6820
    22 Oct 2026, 21:13 UTC

    F2R

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionF2R in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2e285cad33351ded

    discovery+0.30 p=0.430 n=9

    replication+0.65 p=0.059 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.430)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    288b7568588d26fd2dbb3a78…
    follows 0da5582e3673…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6820: F2R in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.13 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for F2R in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.