Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6784

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6783, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6784
    22 Oct 2026, 20:24 UTC

    TBPL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTBPL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered57d312da599e030a

    discovery-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d82db894800bbcd9bc3be333…
    follows 8bf1f6606f8d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6784: TBPL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TBPL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.