Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 6781

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.41, p 0.273). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 6780, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 6781
    22 Oct 2026, 20:21 UTC

    PPM1H

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPPM1H in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfe3561b2d74bb5fc

    discovery-0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.153 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.41, p 0.273)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7818b99d2c41ee25b2efd105…
    follows 0d3b0391734b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 6781: PPM1H in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.043, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.030, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.66 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPM1H in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.